The Curse of "Momentum"

Lately, the word momentum has been used and repeated by political pundits, commentators and bloggers so often that you think it is some kind of magical force. On the contrary, momentum defied all conventional wisdom in this election cycle and is proving to be a curse.

After winning the Iowa caucuses, Obama was riding high on the wave of momentum going into New Hampshire with polls showing double digit leads. He lost by 3%. With two consecutive primary wins (three if you count MI), the Clinton campaign thought momentum would bring her to a close second place in South Carolina despite trailing in the polls. Obama defeated Clinton as expected, far from close, but by a shocking 28%. Coupled with the Kennedy endorsements, mainstream media claimed momentum was blowing Obama’s way. However, in the renegade Florida primary Tuesday night, momentum again stubbornly failed to come through. Clinton beat Obama by 17% and won almost every demographic group in the exit polls. (Think what you may of Florida’s primary, it is hard to discount the 1.5 million Democratic voters.)

Given its track record, I am not sure I want momentum on my side. Perhaps it is trying to prove a point – no candidate is entitled or has exclusive rights to it. To the candidates, may momentum, umm..not be with you.

Where is the Asian American Voice?

Recent highlights of demographics in early presidential primary states seem to ignore the Asian Pacific American (APA) votes. Discussions in mainstream media focus on the importance of African American, Hispanic, women, and Catholic votes, and make no mention of Asian Americans. Asian Americans often appeared to be an afterthought when raised by leading presidential candidates.

Given the political polarization, one would think APAs would be kingmakers in the 2008 election. For example, APIAvote.org noted that APAs constituted 6.1% of the electorate in Nevada, a swing state that Bush won by 2.5% in 2004. In 2006, Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) narrowly beat Sen. George Allen by some 7,000 votes largely because he solidly carried the 160,000 potential APA votes in Virginia. Asian Americans make up about 4-6% of the population and polls after polls show both parties running neck in neck with only a few percentage separating them. Why is the APA voting bloc still being ignored? How can we raise our profile as a community so that APA votes matter and are courted by the candidates?

First comes the why and I think there are several factors. 1) Perception: APAs are perceived as a fractured community with no unifying voice to forcefully deliver their message. 2) Political Apathy: Although APAs make up 4-6% of the population, the number of actual registered voters are minuscule, making them a less potent force in swing states. 3) Non-monolithic Voters: 2004 presidential exit polls showed APA votes were almost evenly split in key states between Bush and Kerry, making them an undependable voting bloc by either party.

The 2008 election cycle offers the APA community the opportunity to change the dynamics. It is inherent in the Asian culture to stay neutral to promote harmony and not take risks, fearful of betting on the losing party. We cannot afford to be timid anymore. This is the time when APAs must take a political stand publically and fight for candidates and party that share their issues, values and concerns. Second, APAs must pull their resources together and demonstrate that they can deliver for their candidates and party. Finally, first generation and older APAs who are citizens must exercise their rights and vote to ensure the voice of future APA generations is heard.

Hillary's Momentum

There is no doubt Hillary Clinton has the momentum and her march towards the Democratic nomination is looking more and more palpable, notwithstanding earlier setbacks in Iowa and comments about MLK. Hard to believe that after the disastrous Iowa results, she came back to win New Hampshire and Nevada, and currently leading by double digits in the polls (realclearpolitics.com) in delegate rich states (CA, NY, NJ, and FL) that will vote on Feb. 5, Super Tuesday.

I thought the Clinton camp brilliantly turned the race comment to their advantage when Obama's supporters made a big deal about it, a strategic error I think will cost Obama the nomination. Obama might have gained the African American votes but at what cost? After the NH and NV primaries, Obama is looking more and more like a one race, one hit candidate, losing the Hispanics, Whites and women votes. While Clinton is pursuing a national campaign, Obama is stuck in South Carolina fighting the other Clinton, and defending his Reagan comments. As the electorate is starting to focus on the presidential race, Obama is forced to answer the "where's the beef" questions on the economy, national security, mortgage crisis, health care, etc. Hope and change may sound nice and warm, but who's going to pay my bills when I'm laid off, and my mutual funds/stocks worth only pennies?